The big geopolitical news of the weekend was Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi getting a big win in elections. Her electoral win appears big enough to change the Japanese constitution without needing other parties approval. This matters as there are restrictions on the Japanese military that were created after World War II. There is a reasonable probability they will move to loosen those restrictions given Beijing sabre rattling.

There is also the matter of alliance building. Just as countries like Canada and Europe flirt with China, other countries pull decidedly closer to the United States. From Mexico to Japan and India or Australia and Taiwan, with China fighting a pitched battle to slow any budgetary allocations to defense, the alliances are coming into increasing focus. The reality is that countries that cooperate with the United States see China as a threat to their interests whether that is security or economic and some times both and want to act to protect those interests, while countries taking trips to Beijing do not see China as a threat or are not yet ready to take action.

Despite regular criticism that the Trump administration is not tough on China, but while it lacks headline grabbing achievements they seem to be speed walking a variety of foundational changes. Even critics seem amazed at the projects being rolled out to address China’s stranglehold on rare earths. It seems no coincidence China has started rolling back it rare earth constraints specifically to Japan. Add in the Pax Silica to assure a variety of tech supply chain work that includes even the way war allies and there is clear foundational work taking place to ensure Beijing cannot extort the United States or its allies. Throw in the recently announced boost to missile production and it is clear what the Trump administration lacks in headline pleasing cliches, it makes up for in little noticed work that changes the board for dealing with China

There are a specific issues however to watch. First, none of these projects like Pax Silica or rare earths have yielded material output yet because they are so new, say under 6-9 months of age. The risk is that the Trump administration lacks the follow through to ensure these projects begin production as rapidly as possible. There is positive movement but that does not guarantee success. If the Trump administration critics want to be better critics, they would be well served to obsessively monitor the progress and execution of these projects.

Second, for every success that the Trump administration has in areas like rare earths, there remains enormous risks in sectors that have not even begun to receive any significant attention from policy makers. While there are reports that the Trump administration is moving to block Chinese computer code from automobiles in the US, the United states remains enormously dependent on China for all nature of electronic components that go into modern automobiles from wifi and entertainment systems to the low grade computer chips. Pharmaceuticals and medical supplies are a major risk. For every win the Trump administration notches in areas like rare earths, there are a line of major risks behind the risks they are addressing.