RWE Raises Forecast as Energy Trading Boosts Profits

RWE AG is poised to deliver full-year results at the high end of its projections, a revision spurred by a surge in energy trading performance, according to an announcement today. The company’s adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2026 reached nearly €4.6 billion – a jump of more than one-third compared to the same period last year, signaling a continuing trend of strong financial performance.

This boost in profitability is directly linked to volatile energy market conditions, specifically disruptions in oil and gas supplies due to geopolitical events in the Middle East, with production losses in the Persian Gulf and reduced LNG deliveries. These market dynamics have created opportunities for RWE’s trading division to capitalize on price fluctuations. Beyond trading, the positive results were also supported by the commissioning of new wind and solar plants, alongside favorable wind conditions across Europe. The Flexible Generation segment also benefited from higher margins and capacity payments from the UK, and a contribution from its majority stake in grid operator Amprion.

The substantial increase in adjusted EBITDA – reaching €4.6 billion for the first nine months – has allowed RWE to nearly achieve the lower end of its previously stated full-year target for adjusted profit of €1.95 billion. Management now expects to exceed this, aiming for a range of €5.75 to €6.35 billion in operating profit for the year. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have even suggested that RWE could surpass the upper end of its earnings projections if energy trading continues to perform well.

While the company benefits from favorable market conditions, broader political pressures are emerging regarding the design of auctions for new backup power plant capacity. Ministers from Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg are advocating for changes to prioritize the construction of gas-fired power plants in Southern Germany, rather than relying on the conversion of existing coal-fired plants in the North. This highlights a potential point of contention as RWE and Leag have secured the majority of contracts in the first round of auctions to build new capacity.